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2024-12-13 05:36:48

Soochow securities interprets the meeting of the Politburo in December: there is more room for imagination in the policy of steady growth next year. soochow securities said that the meeting of the Politburo in December put forward three new formulations, indicating that there is more room for imagination in the policy of steady growth next year. The first is to "stabilize the property market and stock market". On September 26th, the Politburo meeting described the real estate market and the capital market as "to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" and "to vigorously boost the capital market". In December, the Politburo meeting put forward more directly and clearly: "Stabilize the property market and the stock market". The second is "moderately loose monetary policy". After 2010, the keynote of China's monetary policy has been "steady" for a long time, and it has changed to "moderately loose" for the first time in 14 years, and monetary policy is promising. In 2024, the regulatory mechanism of monetary policy has undergone a framework change. Since 2024, loan lending has changed from supply constraint to demand constraint, and monetary policy has gradually weakened its focus on quantitative targets and paid more attention to the role of interest rate regulation. Therefore, the adjustment of "moderate easing" in 2024 may mean that monetary policy will continue to exert its strength from the "demand side" in 2025, and continue to promote the expansion of effective financing demand by maintaining sufficient liquidity supply and reducing financing costs. The third is to "strengthen unconventional countercyclical adjustment". The meeting pointed out: "enrich and improve the policy toolbox, strengthen unconventional countercyclical adjustment, and lay a good policy' combination boxing'". The expression "extraordinary countercyclical regulation" was first put forward.Regulators continue to strengthen the prevention and control of insider trading in mergers and acquisitions to maintain the "three public" order in the capital market. Recently, the securities regulatory bureaus in Hunan and Zhejiang have issued several tickets for insider trading, which fully demonstrates the determination and attitude of the regulatory authorities to "zero tolerance" for illegal securities activities. Insider trading steals the profit opportunities that belong to the majority of investors by obtaining information in advance, which seriously undermines the market order of "three publics", encourages the atmosphere of asking for information and speculation, interferes with investors' value judgment, affects the market pricing function, and infringes on the legitimate rights and interests of investors. The Shanghai Stock Exchange learned that regulators are continuing to strengthen the prevention and control of insider trading in mergers and acquisitions to help maintain the normal functioning of market pricing functions.Igor: It is planned to raise 300-500 million yuan from the controlling shareholder. Igor announced on the evening of December 9 that it plans to raise 300-500 million yuan from the controlling shareholder McGonagall. After deducting the relevant issuance expenses, all the net funds raised will be used to supplement the working capital.


The main force of Brent crude oil futures rose 2.00% in the day to 72.45 US dollars/barrel.Mexican President Simbaum said that the US Deputy Secretary of State candidate "did a good job" during his tenure as the US ambassador to Mexico.Interpretation of the Political Bureau Meeting in December by CITIC Securities: It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that a new round of policy starting guns will be fired, and the policy inflection point will be reconfirmed, making it clear that the macro policy will be strengthened and effective in 2025. From the perspective of fiscal policy, the meeting called for the implementation of a "more active fiscal policy" and enriched the policy toolbox, which may indicate that in 2025, both deficit ratio in a narrow sense and deficit ratio in a broad sense will be significantly improved, and the focus of policy development is also expected to be marginal in the field of people's livelihood consumption. From the perspective of monetary policy, this Politburo meeting calls for the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. This is the first time that China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy after 2010. It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. From the perspective of domestic demand policy, the statement of expanding domestic demand in an all-round way, especially "vigorously boosting consumption", exceeds market expectations. With the support of the existing policies coming into effect and the policy of increasing domestic demand, the improvement of domestic demand may have strong certainty and sustainability. In addition, in terms of structural policies, on the one hand, the meeting clearly stated that it is necessary to "stabilize the property market and the stock market", and the importance of the stock market continues to be highlighted, and real estate is still in the policy landing period; On the other hand, the meeting emphasized that "scientific and technological innovation leads the development of new quality productive forces", and new industries and future industries are expected to receive further policy support.


Lianchuang Optoelectronics: The smooth-blade series laser anti-UAV products have carried out preliminary cooperation negotiations with several airports. Lianchuang Optoelectronics said on the interactive platform on December 9 that in the face of "low-slow and small" flying objects represented by drones, there is a lot of room in the domestic low-altitude security equipment market. The company's smooth-blade series laser anti-UAV products are combined with the developed "low-altitude defense system command and control platform application software" and have the ability to install and deploy countermeasures equipment groups. To build a low-altitude defense system for users, we have carried out preliminary cooperation negotiations with several airports, but it is still in the early stage of negotiations, and there is still some uncertainty about whether we can expand the domestic airport security market as expected.Dow opened up 0.04%, Standard & Poor's 500 fell 0.1%, Nasdaq fell 0.3%, China Stock Exchange rose sharply, bilibili rose 12.0%, Shell rose 11.9%, Netease rose 9.3%, Pinduoduo rose 8.5%, Ctrip rose 7.2% and Weilai rose 6.9%. NVIDIA fell by 2.4%, and the State Administration of Market Supervision decided to file an investigation according to law. Palantir rose by 6.5% and reached a new contract with the US military.Deutsche Bahn Freight Company announced that it will lay off 5,000 people. On December 8, local time, Deutsche Bahn Freight Company announced that it will lay off 5,000 people by 2029, of which 1,000 will be laid off first in 2025. Deutsche Bahn's freight business has been losing money for many years, and the company hopes to turn losses into profits before 2026. In October this year, the company decided to implement a restructuring plan. This plan was originally scheduled to lay off 2,300 people from 2025, and the scale of layoffs has expanded. (CCTV Finance)

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